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Date: 09-07-2012

Views: 4165

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What is wrong with Facebook?

In less than four months, Facebook lost half its value in the stock market.

Sales growth has been decreasing since 2010, from 154% to 88% in 2011. Sales are growing 32% year over year as of today.

Shares are currently selling at 19 dollars, so the market value of the company is 46,000 million dollars. That is less than half the 104,000 million dollars of the debut. Many people talk about Facebook's problems on mobile phones, while others blame lack of advertisement revenue growth.

The numbers were public

The key figures were available to every investor who wanted to know them. First, net income was 1,000 million dollars on 2011. If it had the average PER on the S&P 500, which is 14, Facebook would be worth 14,000 million dollars. That is 3 times less than what it is worth today.

Second was the shareholder equity (assets minus liabilities), roughly 13,300 million bucks. Surprised they are similar? Based on those figures, one share would be worth just about 5 dollars. The other 14 dollars to the current 19 are pure speculation. If it is your game, good luck.

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¿Qué le pasa a Facebook?

En menos de cuatro meses, Facebook ha perdido la mitad de su valor en bolsa.

El crecimiento de las ventas ha estado cayendo desde 2010, cuando era del 154%, hasta el 88% de 2011. Las ventas están creciendo a un 32% anualizado a día de hoy.

Las acciones se venden hoy a 19 dólares, de modo que el valor de mercado de la empresa es de 46,000 millones de dólares. Eso es menos de la mitad de los 104,000 millones de su debut. Mucha gente habla de los problemas de Facebook con los móviles, y otros culpan a la falta de crecimiento de beneficios publicitarios.

Los números estaban ahí

Las cifras clave estaban disponibles para todo inversor que quisiera conocerlas. La primera: los ingresos netos fueron 1,000 millones de dólares en 2011. Si tuviera un PER medio del S&P 500 de 14, Facebook valdría 14,000 millones. Eso es 3 veces menos de lo que vale hoy.

La segunda era el capital accionarial (activo menos la deuda), cerca de 13,300 millones de dólares. ¿Sorprende la similitud? Basados en esos números, una acción valdría algo más de 5 dólares. Los otros 14 dólares hasta llegar a los 19 actuales son pura especulación. Si es su juego, buena suerte.

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